Parizvino, mamiriro edenda repasi rose achiri kuomarara, pamwe nezvinhu zvakaita sengetani dzekupa uye kukwira kwemitengo yechikafu nesimba, huwandu hwese hwekukwira kwemitengo munyika zhinji dzakabudirira hwakasunda kusvika padanho repamusoro mumakore gumi.Nyanzvi dzakati wandei dzinotenda kuti hupfumi hwenyika hwapinda mu "nguva yekudhura" uye iri kuratidza "matanhatu akakwira" mamiriro.
Kuwedzera mari yekuchengetedza hutano.Tang Jianwei, mukuru muongorori weBhangi reCommunication Financial Research Center, anotenda kuti kubva mukuona kwenguva pfupi, denda rakonzera kudzikira mukugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvekutanga, kuvharirwa kwezvinhu zvepasi rose uye kutengeserana, kushomeka kwekupihwa kwemaindasitiri. zvigadzirwa uye kukwira kwemitengo.Kunyange kana mamiriro acho ezvinhu achivandudzika zvishoma nezvishoma, kudzivirira uye kudzora kwedenda uye kupararira kwezvirwere zvichange zvichiri tsika.Liu Yuanchun, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri weRenmin University yeChina, akati kudzoreredzwa kwekudzivirira nekudzora denda kuchawedzera mari yedu yekudzivirira uye mutengo wehutano.Mutengo uyu wakangofanana ne "9.11" kurwisa kwehugandanga kwakanangana nekukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yekuchengetedza pasi rose.
Mari yezvishandiso zvevanhu inowedzera.Sekureva kwetsvakiridzo yakaburitswa neChina Macroeconomic Forum munaKurume 26, mushure mekuputika kwedenda muna 2020, musika wepasi rose wevashandi wakaita shanduko huru, kunyanya munyika dzakabudirira, uye kwave nekuwanda kwekushaya mabasa.Nekuenderera mberi kwedenda uye kuchinja kwemitemo yekudzivirira denda renyika, huwandu hwekushaya mabasa hwaderera.Muchiitiko ichi, zvakadaro, kuderera kwehuwandu hwekutora chikamu kwevashandi kwakakonzera kushomeka kwevashandi kwemadhigirii akasiyana mumaindasitiri akasiyana, achiperekedzwa nekukwira kwemihoro.MuUS, semuenzaniso, mihoro yeawa yega yega yakakwira 6% muna Kubvumbi 2020, zvichienzaniswa neavhareji muhoro muna 2019, uye yakawedzera ne10.7% kubva muna Ndira 2022.
Mutengo we deglobalization wakawedzera.Liu Yuanchun akataura kuti kubva mukupokana kwekutengeserana kweSino-US, nyika dzese dzakaratidza nezve kupatsanurwa kwechinyakare kwehurongwa hwevashandi, ndiko kuti, kuvakwa kweketani yekugovera uye kukosha nekupatsanurwa kwakatwasuka kwevashandi semutumbi mukuru munguva yakapfuura, uye nyika inofanira kupa ngwariro huru kuchengeteko panzvimbo pokunyatsoshanda zvakanaka.Naizvozvo, nyika dzese dziri kuzvivakira zvishwe zvemukati uye kugadzira "spare tire" zvirongwa zveakakosha matekinoroji uye yakakosha matekinoroji, zvichikonzera kuderera kwehunyanzvi hwekugovera zviwanikwa zvepasi rose uye kuwedzera kwemitengo.Nyanzvi dzakaita saZhang Jun, Chief Economist weMorgan Stanley Securities, Wang Jun, Chief Economist weZhongyuan Bank, vanotenda kuti kungave kuri kufa kwakanyanya kunokonzerwa nekushomeka kwepasi rose kwemasks uye mavheti mukutanga kwedenda, kana kugadzirwa kwenharembozha nemotokari kunokonzerwa nekushomeka kwemachipisi gare gare Kudzikira kana kumiswa kwekugadzira kwaratidza kusasimba kwechikamu ichi chepasi rose chevashandi zvichibva pamusimboti wePareto optimality, uye nyika hadzichatore kudzora mutengo sechinhu chekutanga kufunga. kuitira marongerwo epasi rose rekutengesa.

Green transition cost inowedzera.Nyanzvi dzinofunga kuti mushure me "Paris Agreement", "carbon peak" uye "carbon neutral" zvibvumirano zvechinangwa zvakasainwa nenyika dzakasiyana-siyana zvakaunza nyika munguva itsva yekuchinja kwegirinhi.Shanduko yakasvibira yesimba mune ramangwana ichasimudza mutengo wesimba rechinyakare kune rumwe rutivi, uye kuwedzera mari mugirini simba idzva kune rumwe rutivi, izvo zvinosimudza mutengo wegirinhi simba.Kunyangwe kuvandudzwa kwesimba idzva rinogona kubatsira kuderedza kumanikidzwa kwenguva refu pamitengo yemagetsi, chiyero chesimba rinodzokororwa chakaoma kusangana nekukura kuri kudiwa kwesimba repasi rose munguva pfupi, uye pachange paine kumanikidza kukwira pamusoro pekuchinja kwemutengo wesimba kwenguva pfupi nepakati.

Geopolitical mitengo inokwira.Nyanzvi dzakaita saLiu Xiaochun, Mutevedzeri weDean weChina Institute of Financial Research kuShanghai Jiao Tong University, Zhang Liqun, muongorori kuMacroeconomic Research department reDevelopment Research Center yeState Council nedzimwe nyanzvi dzinotenda kuti parizvino, njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika dziripo. kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, izvo zvakakanganisa zvakanyanya mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi hwenyika, uye kupihwa kwesimba uye zvigadzirwa.Cheni dziri kuramba dzisina kusimba, uye mari yekufambisa iri kuwedzera zvakanyanya.Pamusoro pezvo, kushata kwemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika akadai sekunetsana kweRussia-Ukrainian kwakonzera huwandu hukuru hwevanhu uye zviwanikwa zvekushandisa muhondo nemakakatanwa ezvematongerwo enyika pachinzvimbo chemabasa anobereka.Mutengo uyu pasina mubvunzo wakakura.